The 2025 award season is almost coming to an end, and its final stop before it’s Oscar destination is the Actor Awards. The ceremony hits March 1st, hosted by Kristen Bell for the third time, streaming live on Netflix, and it really does feel like the last big moment before the Academy makes its final call. And walking into the night, the narrative feels clear even if the winners don’t: this is a One Battle After Another versus Sinners situation.
One Battle After Another leads with seven nominations and has basically been the steady heartbeat of the season. It shows up everywhere, it wins big prizes pretty much everywhere, and it feels respected across all branches. On paper, that screams like the obvious Ensemble winner. And historically, when a film performs this consistently and has multiple acting nominees, SAG goes with it.
But I’m not fully comfortable calling it a done deal. Sinners has five nominations and there is genuine love for the film as well. It had a great day at BAFTA (winning Screenplay and Supporting Actress for Wunmi Mosaku) so we can expect Sinners to put up a fight here.
Still, if I’m being honest with myself and not trying to get cute, One Battle After Another is the safer pick. It’s done too well for too long to suddenly stall here.
Best Actress feels like the one category where one can breathe. Jessie Buckley in Hamnet has maintained dominance and has safely swept. The performance is loved by a lot of people, and SAG most likely will as well.
Best Actor, though? That’s where the overthinking begins.
Timothée Chalamet has looked like the obvious winner for most of the season. Marty Supreme was a hit. He’s liked. He’s visible. He won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards, in addition to being the critics’ frontrunner. The film has other SAG recognition, including Ensemble and Supporting Actress. Everything about it says “this is happening.”
And then BAFTA threw a wrench into things.
Losing there made people suddenly question how strong he really is. But here’s the thing: sometimes a BAFTA loss doesn’t signal weakness. Sometimes it’s just BAFTA being BAFTA. The bigger question is whether anyone here has the momentum to actually take this from him.
Michael B. Jordan feels like the closest challenger. Sinners performed extremely well here, and if that film has a big night, Jordan would logically benefit. But this season has had us spiraling into complicated theories when the answer might just be the simplest one.
Chalamet still feels like the industry favorite. I think the BAFTA loss was a blip. I think he wins here. And if he does, that probably sets up the Oscar.
Supporting Actress is chaos in human form. Amy Madigan wins Critics Choice. Teyana Taylor wins the Globe. Wunmi Mosaku wins BAFTA. Three precursors, three different winners. You could build a solid argument for any of them, and I wouldn’t roll my eyes.
Madigan feels like the kind of veteran performance SAG loves to reward. Mosaku’s BAFTA win suggests industry support we may have underestimated. And then there’s Teyana Taylor, who has the Globe, the visibility, and the benefit of being part of what might be the night’s biggest film.
Given how strong One Battle After Another is positioned, I’m sticking with Taylor. It makes sense in the broader picture. It also feels like the kind of win that keeps the season interesting heading into Oscar night.
Supporting Actor is just as messy. Stellan Skarsgård won the Globe but isn’t even nominated here. Jacob Elordi won Critics Choice. Sean Penn took BAFTA and reminded everyone that the industry still shows up for him.
And then you have Benicio del Toro sitting right there as the other major contender from One Battle After Another.
Logic says Penn. The BAFTA win matters. Actors respect him.
But this season hasn’t rewarded logic consistently. And if One Battle After Another really does dominate the night, del Toro could be that surprise win.
So yes, I’m leaning del Toro. I might regret it. That’s part of the fun.
This entire season has been fun, honestly. A tad frustrating, unpredictable, occasionally nonsensical but fun. SAG feels like the last genuine surprise opportunity before everything calcifies for the Oscars.
If One Battle After Another sweeps here, the path becomes clearer.
If Sinners pushes back, we have a race again.
Either way, by the end of March 1st, we’ll have a much better sense of whether this season was chaotic by design… or just setting us up for one final twist.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”**
“Sinners”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
“Jessie Buckley – Hamnet”**
“Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
“Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue”
“Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
“Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme”**
“Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another”
“Michael B. Jordan – Sinners”
“Jesse Plemons – Bugonia”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
“Miles Caton – Sinners”
“Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another”**
“Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein”
“Paul Mescal – Hamnet”
“Sean Penn – One Battle After Another”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
“Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme”
“Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good”
“Amy Madigan – Weapons”
“Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners”
“Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another”**
OUTSTANDING STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning”**
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
Roberto Tyler Ortiz is a movie and TV enthusiast with a love for literally any film. He is a writer for LoudAndClearReviews, and when he isn’t writing for them, he’s sharing his personal reviews and thoughts on Twitter, Instagram, and Letterboxd. As a member of the Austin Film Critics Association, Roberto is always ready to chat about the latest releases, dive deep into film discussions, or discover something new.
