2026 Golden Globe Winner Predictions

Awards season is heating up, and adding to that boiling pot is the Golden Globes! This year’s ceremony takes place on Sunday, January 11th, airing on CBS and streaming on Paramount+, with Nikki Glaser back as host. The nomination spread already tells a story. One Battle After Another leads the film field with nine nominations. Sentimental Value follows close behind with eight, and Sinners isn’t far off with seven. That alone suggests we’re not walking into a one-film coronation. This feels like a night where the wins are going to move around the room.

Before getting into final picks, it’s worth taking a step back and reading the room. The Golden Globes always reward momentum, but they also love to zig when everyone expects a zag. This year feels especially slippery in that way. There are clear frontrunners on paper, but very few categories where the outcome feels fully settled. A lot of these races come down to how much passion exists rather than how “deserving” something is supposed to be.

Starting with Best Picture – Drama, this is where the night really starts to take shape. On paper, the race looks crowded, but emotionally it feels narrower. Hamnet and Sinners are the two films people actually talk about when this category comes up. I keep landing on Hamnet here, mostly because it feels exactly like the kind of film the Globes would reward. That said, this isn’t a lock. If Sinners starts winning elsewhere during the night, this could absolutely swing.

Best Picture – Musical or Comedy feels more straightforward. One Battle After Another has been embraced loudly and consistently, and this is exactly the kind of category where that enthusiasm turns into a win. It’s big, it’s showy, it plays well overall, and the Globes clearly enjoy being seen as the place that “got it” early. A win here feels like the foundation for the rest of the awards season.

The acting categories are where the confidence starts to wobble.

Best Actor – Drama is being treated as a Wagner Moura inevitability for The Secret Agent, and to be fair, the case makes sense. He’s been visible all season, the film is nominated for Best Picture – Drama, and there’s clear respect for the performance. Still, I’m wary of how often people fall back on last year as a template. The idea that “this happened before, so it’ll happen again” almost never holds. Awards seasons don’t like repetition in that way.

Michael B. Jordan is the alternative that keeps nagging at me. Sinners has shown strength across the board, and Jordan is exactly the kind of star the Globes like to reward when the moment feels right. I’m still predicting Moura, but not with the kind of confidence people seem eager to project.

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy is a much more comfortable prediction, even if the competition is strong. Timothée Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme has been building genuine passion. It’s not just admiration, it’s excitement. Leonardo DiCaprio could ride a wave if One Battle After Another starts dominating, and Ethan Hawke has real support for Blue Moon, especially with that film showing up in Picture. Even so, this feels like Chalamet’s category to lose.

Then there are the supporting races, which feel like walking into fog.

Best Supporting Actor could reasonably go to Benicio del Toro, Sean Penn, or Stellan Skarsgård. All three have narratives that make sense. Skarsgård stands out to me because his work in Sentimental Value feels like the sort of commanding performance the Globes like to single out, especially when it comes from a respected international actor.

Best Supporting Actress is even messier. Amy Madigan has been cleaning up with critics, Ariana Grande has visibility and pop-cultural momentum, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas has strong international backing, and Teyana Taylor has steadily gained traction as the season’s gone on. This feels like a category where the Globes could absolutely ignore the critics’ consensus and go with the performance that feels most alive in the room. Ask five people who’s winning, and you’ll probably get five different answers.

Best Director feels like one of the night’s firmer calls. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is firing on every cylinder, and this feels like the moment where that support crystallizes into a win. Things are looking good for him, and he is looking at his first-ever Golden Globe win; however, Jafar Panahi would be an inspired choice, especially given the political reality surrounding It Was Just an Accident, but I suspect the Globes channel that recognition elsewhere.

That elsewhere is Best Screenplay, which feels primed for Panahi. The narrative matters, yes, but the screenplay itself has been widely praised, and getting Panahi on that stage making a speech would be a big statement.

All of that is to say: this is a year where confidence should be tempered. There are trends, sure, but there’s also a lot of room for the Globes to remind us that they’re still their own thing. With that in mind, here’s where I ultimately land once all those variables are weighed.

Best Picture – Drama

1. Frankenstein

2. Hamnet**

3. It Was Just an Accident

4. The Secret Agent

5. Sentimental Value

6. Sinners

Best Picture – Musical Or Comedy

1. Blue Moon

2. Bugonia

3. Marty Supreme

4. No Other Choice

5. Nouvelle Vague

6. One Battle After Another**

Best Actor – Drama

1. Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams

2. Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein

3. Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine

4. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners

5. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent**

6. Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Actor – Musical Or Comedy

1. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme**

2. George Clooney – Jay Kelly 

3. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another

4. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon 

5. Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice 

6. Jesse Plemons – Bugonia 

Best Actress – Drama

1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet**

2. Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love

3. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value

4. Julia Roberts – After the Hunt 

5. Tessa Thompson – Hedda

6. Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby 

Best Actress – Musical Or Comedy

1. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You**

2. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good

3. Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue

4. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another

5. Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee

6. Emma Stone – Bugonia 

Best Supporting Actor

1. Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another 

2. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein 

3. Paul Mescal – Hamnet

4. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another

5. Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly

6. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value**

Best Supporting Actress

1. Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine

2. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value 

3. Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value

5. Amy Madigan – Weapons 

6. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another**

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another**

2. Ryan Coogler – Sinners

3. Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein

4. Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident

5. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

6. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet

Best Screenplay 

1. Hamnet 

2. It Was Just An Accident**

3. Marty Supreme 

4. One Battle After Another 

5. Sentimental Value 

6. Sinners

Best Score

1. F1

2. Frankenstein 

3. Hamnet

4. One Battle After Another**

5. Sinners

6. Sirāt

Best Animated Feature

1. Arco

2. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

3. Elio

4. KPop Demon Hunters**

5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

6. Zootopia 2

Best International Feature

1. It Was Just an Accident (France)**

2. No Other Choice (South Korea)

3. The Secret Agent (Brazil)

4. Sentimental Value (Norway)

5. Sirāt (Spain)

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) 

Best Original Song

1. Dream As One – Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Girl in the Bubble – Wicked: For Good

3. Golden – KPop Demon Hunters**

4. I Lied To You – Sinners

5. No Place Like Home – Wicked: For Good

6. Train Dreams – Train Dreams

The 2026 Golden Globes, hosted by comedian Nikki Glaser, will air on Sunday, Jan. 11 at 8 p.m. ET on CBS and will be available to stream on Paramount+.