2026 Oscar Nomination Predictions 

Oscar nomination morning is always exciting and nerve-racking. We all have our predictions, just hoping we are right. By the time January 22 rolls around, we’ll have convinced ourselves that certain films are locked, that certain names are inevitable, that the race has somehow clarified itself. And then nominations come out and remind us, yet again, that the Academy doesn’t always care about our neat narratives.

This year is no exception. There’s no single film that feels like it’s steamrolling the season. Instead, there’s a cluster at the top with One Battle After Another, Sinners, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Hamnet. All of them strong, all of them widely liked, all of them vulnerable in different ways. The result is a race where the first seven or so Best Picture slots feel relatively safe, while the last two or three could swing wildly depending on which branch decides to flex its muscle.

That uncertainty starts right at the top. Films like Bugonia, Hamnet, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, and Sinners feel like they’re waking up to nominations. They’ve shown up across critics groups, landed key Globe mentions, and maintained visibility. After that, things get shakier. The Secret Agent and It Was Just An Accident have critical respect, but guild support hasn’t exactly followed. Their weak showing on the BAFTA longlist doesn’t help, especially with BAFTA nominations coming after Oscar voting closes. That’s not a great look.

Meanwhile, the films circling the bubble—Blue Moon, Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Train Dreams—feel like outsiders with specific paths. Train Dreams makes sense if the Academy leans literary and actor-forward. F1 shows up if the tech branches take control. Avatar only works if late screenings made a real dent. None of those are impossible, but none feel safe either.

One of the biggest questions hanging over the entire nomination morning is NEON. Can one studio realistically land multiple international films in Best Picture? On paper, it sounds excessive. In practice, NEON has already proven they know exactly how to talk to the Academy. Parasite didn’t just get nominated, it became the first ever foreign language movie to win Best Picture. Triangle of Sadness got into Picture and Director when guilds ignored it entirely. This year alone, It Was Just An Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and No Other Choice all made it into Best Picture at the Golden Globes. Critics Choice didn’t fully embrace them, but that hasn’t historically mattered much when it comes to the Academy’s more globally minded branches.

Acting is where I’m expecting the most shock. Best Actor feels crowded in a way that usually leads to at least one jaw-dropper. Best Actress feels deceptively calm until you start imagining which names could miss. Supporting categories feel volatile across the board, especially Supporting Actress, which has never settled into anything resembling consensus this season.

That same logic applies to Best Director, which feels like a complete mess. Paul Thomas Anderson is the only true lock. After that, everything gets complicated. Ryan Coogler looks strong on paper, having hit every precursor, but the Directors Branch has never been shy about snubbing studio-scale genre films. Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein is beloved, but it’s also the kind of project that doesn’t always register with that branch. Josh Safdie missed Globes. Joachim Trier missed DGA. Panahi missed nearly everything — and yet, international auteurs routinely overperform here. The Directors Branch likes to remind us that they are not the same body as SAG or the Globes, and every year they prove it.

All of this is to say: confidence is dangerous right now. Patterns exist, but they’re fragile. With that in mind, here’s where I land when I stop spiraling and actually commit to predictions.

(Order is Alphabetical)

Best Picture

1. Bugonia 


2. Hamnet


3. It Was Just An Accident 


4. Frankenstein


5. Marty Supreme


6. One Battle After Another


7. The Secret Agent 


8. Sentimental Value


9. Sinners


10. Train Dreams

Best Director

1. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet


2. Jafar Panahi – It Was Just An Accident 


3. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

4. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

5. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet – Marty Supreme 


2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another 


3. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon


4. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners


5. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet


2. Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue


3. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another 


4. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value


5. Emma Stone – Bugonia

Best Supporting Actor

1. Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another

2. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein

3. Paul Mescal – Hamnet

4. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another 


5. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

1. Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme 


2. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value 


3. Amy Madigan – Weapons


4. Wumni Mosaku – Sinners


5. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

1. It Was Just An Accident 


2. Marty Supreme


3. The Secret Agent 


4. Sentimental Value


5. Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Bugonia


2. Frankenstein 


3. Hamnet


4. One Battle After Another 


5. Train Dreams

Best Animated Feature

1. Arco


2. Elio


3. Kpop Demon Hunters


4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain


5. Zootopia 2

Best Cinematography

1. Hamnet

2. Frankenstein

3. Marty Supreme

4. One Battle After Another

5. Sinners

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein


2. One Battle After Another


3. Sinners


4. The Smashing Machine


5. Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

1. Frankenstein


2. Hamnet


3. Hedda 


4. Sinners


5. Wicked: For Good

Best Original Score

1. Bugonia 


2. Hamnet 


3. Marty Supreme


4. One Battle After Another


5. Sinners

Best Film Editing

1. F1


2. Hamnet


3. Marty Supreme


4. One Battle After Another 


5. Sentimental Value

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein


2. Hamnet 


3. Marty Supreme


4. Sinners 


5. Wicked: For Good

Best Sound

1. F1

2. Frankenstein

3. One Battle After Another 


4. Sinners


5. Sirāt

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash


2. F1


3. Superman
 


4. Tron: Ares

5. Wicked: For Good

Best Casting

1. Hamnet

2. Marty Supreme

3. One Battle After Another

4. Sentimental Value

5. Sinners

Best International Feature

1. It Was Just an Accident (France)

2. The Secret Agent
(Brazil)

3. Sentimental Value (Norway)


4. Sirāt
(Spain)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

 Best Documentary

1. Cutting Through Rocks


2. Mr. Nobody Against Putin


3. The Perfect Neighbor 


4. Seeds


5. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

Best Original Song

1. Dear Me – Diane Warren: Relentless 


2. Drive – F1


3. The Girl in the Bubble – Wicked: For Good


4. Golden – KPop Demon Hunters


5. I Lied to You – Sinners

Best Live Action Short Film

1. ADO


2. Beyond Silence


3. The Boy with White Skin


4. A Friend of Dorothy


5. Two People Exchanging Saliva

Best Documentary Short Film

1. All the Walls Came Down


2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud 


3. Bad Hostage


4. Children No More: Were and Are Gone


5. Rovina’s Choice

Best Animated Short Film

1. Bus


2. Éiru


3. The Girl Who Cried Pearls


4. Forevergreen


5. Snow Bear 

 

Nominees will be announced January 22, 2026, at 8:30am ET | 5:30am PT. You can view them on the Academy’s digital platforms like YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook, plus on Good Morning America, ABC News Live, Disney+, and Hulu.