Betting The Falcons: What History Tells Us About Spreads And Totals

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Few NFL teams test the patience of bettors quite like the Atlanta Falcons. On paper, they often seem to have the talent to compete, yet the betting results tell a different story.

The Falcons’ long-running struggles against the spread and their peculiar relationship with totals, especially in prime-time games, make them a fascinating case study for fans and bettors alike.

Understanding this history isn’t just trivia. For those who place wagers or simply want to follow the team more closely, these trends provide context. They highlight patterns that sportsbooks take into account and give insight into why certain lines look the way they do.

The Falcons’ Story Against the Spread

The Falcons’ relationship with the spread is complicated, especially when they’re expected to win.

A Team That Struggles as Favorites

Atlanta has consistently faltered when entering games as a favorite. Since the start of the 2025 season, the team holds a 1-2-0 record against the spread (ATS) in those situations.

Home games have been particularly frustrating for backers: in 2024, the Falcons finished just 6-11 ATS. The narrative hasn’t changed much this year, as they’ve already lost their first ATS opportunity as a home favorite.

Sportsbooks adjust quickly when a team develops a reputation like this, but Atlanta’s inconsistency makes predicting outcomes tricky. Bettors expecting the Falcons to cruise past weaker opponents have often been burned.

These struggles also influence how weekly lines are shaped. Fans tracking Atlanta Falcons odds will notice that even modest point spreads can carry hidden risks when Atlanta is favored. The data suggests caution, and sometimes, value lies on the other side of the line.

Finding Value as Underdogs

The picture shifts slightly when the Falcons are underdogs, especially on the road. Since November 2022, they’ve managed a 4-5 ATS record in divisional road matchups. While not stellar, it’s an improvement over their broader performance. Rivalry games against the Saints, Buccaneers, and Panthers tend to bring out sharper play, giving bettors occasional reasons for optimism.

Prime-Time Games and the Power of the Under

Prime-time football carries its own energy, and for the Falcons, that often translates into lower-scoring affairs. The team has built a strong historical trend of prime-time games going Under the set total, a pattern observed across several seasons. It’s a pattern that bettors continue to keep in mind whenever Atlanta takes the national stage.

Even in 2024, when the Falcons posted a decent record under the lights, the totals rarely soared. Five of their eight home games that year also went Under.

This isn’t just statistical noise; it reflects how the team’s defensive strengths and offensive volatility combine to produce low-scoring affairs when the spotlight is brightest.

For bettors, prime-time Falcons games have become almost synonymous with the Under. It’s the kind of trend that fans can joke about, yet sportsbooks take seriously when setting totals.

How the 2024 Season Shaped Bettors’ Views

Last season was a crash course in the perils and occasional payoffs of betting on Atlanta.

Spreads That Burned Backers

With a 6-11 ATS record, the Falcons were among the league’s least reliable teams for spread bettors. Their defensive improvements weren’t enough to cover for an inconsistent offense and shaky quarterback play. Games were closer than expected, but not in the ways that helped those laying points.

Totals That Trended Lower

The Falcons’ 7-10 Over/Under record in 2024 reflected their identity: stout defense, sporadic scoring, and injuries that derailed rhythm. Bettors who leaned Under, particularly in home games, found more success than those betting on offensive explosions.

Early 2025 Snapshot: New Quarterback, Same Questions

The 2025 season introduced rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and with him, new uncertainties. Through four weeks, Penix has completed just 62.4% of his passes, with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Rookie inconsistency, combined with lingering injuries to Kaleb McGary, has made Atlanta a volatile team to handicap.

The Falcons’ ATS record sits at 1-2-0, with just one game hitting the Over. For bettors, this reinforces the need to account for growing pains on offense and the defense’s ability to keep contests close.

Key Trends Bettors Can’t Ignore

Certain betting trends have defined Atlanta over the years. They don’t guarantee outcomes, but they paint a clear picture:

• ATS Following a Loss: 35-26 ATS after losing by six points or more,
• Home Games After a Home Win: 7-25 ATS, one of the worst marks in the league,
• Historical ATS: Worst record in the NFC South over the last five years at 34-50-1,
• Totals: Falcons own an all-time Over/Under record of 350-381-23, leaning slightly Under.

For fans looking ahead to upcoming NFL games and props, these numbers serve as guidelines. They won’t predict every result, but they show where Atlanta has repeatedly struggled and where sharp bettors may find opportunity.

Why Context Matters More Than Trends Alone

Trends tell a story, but context writes the ending. Injuries, quarterback play, coaching decisions, and divisional rivalries all shape how spreads and totals unfold.

Consider Atlanta’s defense: elite against first-read passes, yet still among the league’s weakest at generating sacks.

That combination produces unpredictable totals, shutting down quick throws while struggling against extended plays. Bettors who simply follow the Under trend without weighing the matchup context may miss important nuances.

Falcons Betting: Past and Present Collide

The Falcons’ history against the spread and totals makes them one of the NFL’s more intriguing betting puzzles. Their struggles as favorites, their prime-time Under streak, and the early volatility of a rookie quarterback all contribute to lines that deserve scrutiny.

For fans, this unpredictability can be maddening. For bettors, it can be an opportunity, if approached with discipline and context.

Whether you’re keeping tabs on divisional road matchups or watching how Penix Jr. develops, Atlanta will continue to offer lessons on how past performance informs present betting value.

*Content reflects information available as of 01/10/2025; subject to change