With the 97th Academy Awards set for March 2, 2025, the awards season is heating up. As of February 22, 2025, final voting has concluded, and the film community is abuzz with speculation. Here are our predictions for the major Oscar categories, based on current trends, critical reception, and precursor awards. Let’s dive in!
Best Picture
“Anora“ (Neon)
Why? Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or winner has swept key precursors like the Critics Choice, DGA, and PGA Awards, signaling strong Academy support. Despite competition from “The Brutalist” and “Conclave,” “Anora”’s momentum and narrative resonance make it the frontrunner.
Best Director
Sean Baker – “Anora”
Why? Baker’s visionary direction has been celebrated throughout the season, with a DGA win bolstering his chances. Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) is a strong contender, but Baker’s consistent recognition gives him the edge.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody – “The Brutalist“
Why? Brody’s towering performance has earned him Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins, making him a favorite. Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) is close behind, but Brody’s veteran status and transformative role might sway voters.
Best Actress
Demi Moore – “The Substance“
Why? Moore’s bold comeback has captivated audiences and critics, with a Golden Globe win sealing her narrative. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) are in the race, but Moore’s career resurgence could clinch it.
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin – “A Real Pain“
Why? Culkin’s heartfelt performance has been a standout, earning consistent praise. Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”) is a contender, but Culkin’s buzz and emotional depth make him the likely winner.
Best Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldaña – “Emilia Pérez“
Why? Despite the film’s controversy, Saldaña’s powerful turn has maintained support, with a BAFTA win in sight. Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) has momentum, but Saldaña’s dramatic heft could prevail.
Best Original Screenplay
“Anora” – Sean Baker
Why? The film’s sharp, inventive script has been a critical darling. “The Brutalist” and “A Real Pain” are contenders, but “Anora”’s storytelling aligns with Academy tastes.
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Conclave“ – Peter Straughan
Why? This taut, intelligent adaptation has won over voters, with a BAFTA nod reinforcing its strength. “A Complete Unknown” is in the mix, but “Conclave”’s precision stands out.
Best Cinematography
“The Brutalist” – Lol Crawley
Why? The film’s stunning visuals have been universally lauded, giving it an edge over “Dune: Part Two” and “Nickel Boys.”
Best Original Score
“Wicked“ – John Powell and Stephen Schwart
Why? The musical’s soaring score has enchanted audiences, outshining “The Brutalist” and “Dune: Part Two” in this category.
Notes on the Predictions:
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Best Picture: “Anora” is favored due to its sweep of major guild awards (PGA, DGA, Critics Choice), a strong indicator of Oscar success.
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Best Director: Sean Baker’s consistent wins align with “Anora”’s momentum, though Brady Corbet remains a threat.
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Best Actor: Adrien Brody’s precursor victories give him a slight lead over Timothée Chalamet, whose campaign is robust but less decorated thus far.
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Best Actress: Demi Moore’s narrative of a career resurgence and Golden Globe win make her a sentimental favorite, though Mikey Madison could ride “Anora”’s wave.
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Supporting Categories: Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña have standout performances with strong buzz, despite competition from “Wicked” and “The Brutalist.”
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Screenplays: “Anora” and “Conclave” are predicted for their respective categories due to critical acclaim and adaptation strength.
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Technical Awards: “The Brutalist” and “Wicked” are chosen for their visual and musical excellence, respectively.
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