Which Breeders’ Cup Contenders Could Outperform Their Odds?

Photo by Jeff Griffith on Unsplash

Betting favorites win approximately 30% of their races. Favorites in the Breeders’ Cup have a similar win percentage: approximately 31% of the winners of Breeders’ Cup races left to gate as the top betting choice.

This includes both the Classic, the Dirt Mile and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 2022.

So while the favorite in the race wins about once every three races, that still leaves plenty of possibilities to find value in your win bet. Here are some horses that bettors are tossing aside who might be worth a second look.

Rich Strike

Could a Kentucky Derby winner ever be forgotten?

Yes, if the Classic future pool is to be believed.

Rich Strike was the darling of the racing world after his shocking Derby upset. Who couldn’t love a deep closing 81-1 shot who was literally five minutes away from not drawing into the race at all, who navigated traffic with the confidence of a police officer leading a high speed chase, and then had enough energy left over to savage his own lead pony?

It is true that the son of Keen Ice has failed to win since Derby day. However, he was a flying fourth in the Grade I Travers Stakes, and ran the older Hot Rod Charlie to a head-bob in the Grade II Lukas Classic. If Flightline and Life is Good get caught up in a duel and the rail isn’t too deep, Rich Strike could very well pick up the pieces once again.

American Theorem

This year’s edition of the Sprint looks to be a matchup between two short-distance sensations, one age three and the other age four. The younger versus the elder. The seasoned veteran versus the up-and-comer.

Jack versus Jackie.

But beyond Jack Christopher and Jackie’s Warrior, we have American Theorem, a five-year-old son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah who has come into his own as a sprinter this year. After attempting routes in the Grade II San Pasqual Stakes, the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap, and the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes, trainer George Papaprodromou chose to back him up to seven furlongs in the Grade II Triple Bend Stakes.

He was rewarded with a nose-length victory over Principe Carlo, with heavily favored Brickyard Ride coming in a distant fifth. American Theorem sealed his preference with a win in the six furlong Grade I Bing Crosby Stakes, this time coming home more than a length in front in spite of jockey Joe Bravo dropping his whip in the stretch.

This series of wins has helped to develop the theorem that a Triple Crown winner can sire a six-furlong specialist, no matter how unintuitive that might look at first.

Simplification

Although most casual sports fans only think of win bets, there are multiple ways to wager. People can bet on more than one race at a time. People can bet on more than one horse to win. People can bet on a given horse to finish in a position other than first, and those that can do this correctly stand to win a lot of money.

That’s where Dirt Mile hopeful Simplification comes in.

He doesn’t win often- in fact, his most recent victory came in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 5th. However, he always seems to be hanging around late, getting himself into the thick of things, and if you include him in your superfecta (the top four finish positions), he may just surprise you.

In the Kentucky Derby, Simplification was seventeenth early on but rallied to finish fourth. He had a bad race when he finished sixth in the Preakness, but he held on for third in the Grade III West Virginia Derby and fourth in the Grade I Pennsylvania Derby, both at 1 ⅛ miles. The shorter distance of the Dirt Mile may just simplify things for this three-year-old son of Not This Time.