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The 2025 college football season brings with it the debut of a 12-team playoff. That means more teams than ever are entering Week 1 with realistic hopes of making a title run.
However, with the format change comes new committee rules and a stronger emphasis on head-to-head matchups and conference championships. For teams with their eye on the main prize, the path to the postseason has changed.
For bettors tracking NCAAF betting news, the preseason odds already offer clues about who the top contenders are and which teams have a shot depending on early results. Some programs start in the top 10. Others, like Boise State, hover just outside the rankings but have a real shot at punching above their weight.
Let’s break down the key playoff factors this year, highlight which bubble teams are worth watching, and examine who could crack the on-field code come December.
Lessons From Last Year’s Playoff Race
Last season’s results shaped how the selection committee will approach the new playoff structure. For programs on the bubble, those lessons still apply:
Margins matter more than you think. Indiana finished No. 8 with no ranked wins and a weak schedule, but their huge scoring margins boosted their perception. Dominating weaker opponents matters, especially for teams like BYU or North Carolina.
No championship game = no late bump. South Carolina beat eventual ACC champ Clemson in the regular season but still dropped a spot while idle during conference championship weekend. It reminded bettors and teams alike: momentum matters.
A bad early loss isn’t fatal—if you recover. Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois in Week 2, but still made the national title game. The key? A strong résumé is always in the hunt.
Avoid sitting at No. 11 or 12. Alabama was the top three-loss team but got bumped out to make room for lower-ranked conference champs. Any team without a league title needs to aim higher than those final bubble spots.
These insights offer real value for those following NCAAF betting predictions, especially when evaluating early-season schedules.
Boise State’s High Ceiling Comes With High Stakes
Boise State is the only Group of 5 team in the AP Top 25, entering at No. 25. But they have a 25% chance of making the playoff, the highest among G5 teams.
Coach Spencer Danielson has his players playing with a chip on their shoulder, especially after being unranked in 2024 and still winning the Mountain West.
The Broncos open the year at South Florida. That matchup could decide which of those two leagues gets a higher-ranked champion. Even more important: the October 4 game at Notre Dame. A competitive showing there could separate Boise State from other G5 programs, even in a loss.
South Florida’s Brutal Start Could Define Their Year
South Florida doesn’t get to ease into the season. The Bulls open with three straight games against ranked teams: Boise State, Florida, and Miami. It’s a nightmare for any coaching staff, but also a golden opportunity.
A win over Boise State could position the Bulls to out-rank them in a head-to-head comparison if both win their conferences. That edge could be the difference in who earns a G5 playoff spot. But two or more losses early could knock South Florida out of contention before October.
They’re the definition of a high-variance program this year, capable of surprising wins or falling prey to early elimination. Bettors watching the NCAAF futures betting markets will want to keep a close eye on how the Bulls open.
Miami’s Schedule Makes or Breaks Its Season
Miami’s playoff hopes depend on how they handle their early nonconference schedule. Their opener against Notre Dame is huge, and they face South Florida, Florida, and Florida State, all before November rolls around.
The Hurricanes don’t play Clemson in the regular season. That means they might not get a late marquee win unless they reach the ACC title game. A loss to FSU would put pressure on their Nov. 1 trip to SMU.
Oklahoma Can’t Afford a Slow September
The Sooners have a daunting early slate: Michigan and Auburn both come to Norman in September. It’s worth noting that those are just the warm-ups for a five-week stretch that includes five top-25 opponents.
Oklahoma’s betting odds could swing wildly in the first month. A 2-0 start could launch them into the top 5. But even one stumble could create a logjam in the Big 12 standings. With no shortage of SEC or ACC teams eyeing at-large bids, falling behind early might be too much to overcome.
The Sooners are a team that should be monitored week-to-week, especially for bettors with a long-term strategy who want to sharpen their edge with the latest NCAAF betting news.
SEC Bubble Teams: Florida, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M
Several SEC programs sit just outside the top tier, and how they handle September will tell us everything.
- Florida: The Gators face Miami, LSU, and Texas in the opening stretch. They’ll need at least one win from that group to stay alive,
- Texas A&M: A trip to Notre Dame on Sept. 13 is the big one. Both teams could be competing for an at-large slot, and the committee will use the head-to-head as a tiebreaker,
- Ole Miss: A September game against Tulane is no cupcake. But the real test is LSU. That’s their shot to prove they belong in the SEC title conversation.
These teams could all end up in the 9–12 range by season’s end. However, as last year showed, that’s a vulnerable position. It’s simply not enough to be good. You have to be better.
This Year’s Race Will Test Depth, Consistency and Timing
Every team on the bubble enters this season with something to prove. Whether it’s Boise State trying to represent the G5, or Miami trying to survive a brutal schedule, or Oklahoma needing early wins to stay alive, nobody has a guaranteed spot.
With seven at-large bids and five auto-bids, the playoff conversation will be fluid. One loss does not mean elimination, but it does raise the bar. Winning big, staying healthy, and showing up in statement games will separate contenders from hopefuls.
For those following NCAAF betting predictions, staying ahead of those shifts could make all the difference.
*Content reflects information available as of 2025/09/01; subject to change.
Frankie Wilde – is a content writer at various gambling sites. Also, he is a passionate traveler and a great cook. Frankie shares informative articles with the world.
