2026 Actor Awards Nomination Predictions

The Screen Actors Guild has always either operated on its own wavelength or gone along with what other groups have been doing. Sometimes it lines up cleanly with the Oscars, sometimes it feels like it’s responding to a totally different season altogether. That’s part of why SAG — or now, officially, the Actor Awards — still matters so much. These are performers voting for performers, which means reputation, goodwill, ensemble strength, and emotional connection can matter just as much as raw critical momentum.

Nominations arrive January 7th, and this year feels especially slippery. There’s no single film dominating every conversation, no obvious “we all agree on this” consensus beyond a handful of titles that keep popping up, no matter which guild you look at. One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Marty Supreme feel like the safest bets to show up across the board, but beyond that, things get interesting fast.

SAG has also always been more forgiving than other groups. Films that stumble at the Golden Globes don’t automatically die here. A strong showing at SAG can reframe a narrative overnight, especially in Ensemble, which still carries real weight heading into Oscar voting.

That’s why something like Jay Kelly still feels something we shouldn’t keep dismissing. Yes, it missed Best Picture at the Globes, and yes, there’s been skepticism about whether Adam Sandler or George Clooney could break through, especially as it’s been struggling this season. But SAG has a long history of embracing familiar faces and actor-driven films, even when the industry conversation starts drifting elsewhere. A nomination here, especially in Ensemble, would instantly put the film back in the conversation. Sandler, in particular, feels like the kind of performance SAG could rally behind even if other groups hesitate.

L to R: Cynthia Erivo is Elphaba and Ariana Grande is Glinda in WICKED FOR GOOD, directed by Jon M. Chu.

There’s also Wicked: For Good, which hasn’t had the smoothest ride so far. Its Golden Globe miss raised eyebrows, but dismissing it entirely would be a mistake. SAG voters have shown time and time again that they’re willing to stick with performers they respect, even when the larger awards ecosystem starts wobbling.

Then there’s Sentimental Value, which might be the strangest wildcard of the season. Foreign-language films rarely make a dent at SAG outside of very specific circumstances. Parasite did it. Emilia Pérez did it. This feels like that kind of exception, if any film is going to be one. That said, it’s hard to imagine a sweeping nomination haul. It’s more likely to get nominations across the board or just get 1 or 2. There’s not much middle ground.

One thing SAG continues to be consistent about is boosting actors who need momentum. A nomination here can quietly revive an Oscar campaign. People like Joel Edgerton, Kate Hudson, Amanda Seyfried, and Ethan Hawke all stand to gain enormously from SAG recognition. Even a single mention can change how their season is perceived.

And then there’s Emily Blunt. SAG loves Emily Blunt. They’ve gone out of their way to nominate her before, even giving her a Supporting Actress win for A Quiet Place, and The Smashing Machine gives her another opportunity to connect with voters. Pair that with Dwayne Johnson, who’s been steadily building industry credibility, and that film suddenly feels very SAG-friendly.

With all of that in mind, here’s how I see the nominations shaping up.