The 2022 World Cup has barely begun in Qatar, and at least two major upsets have ruined many people’s hopes: Argentina’s 2-1 loss to Saudi Arabia and Japan’s victory over Germany by the same score. So it might not be a good idea to overlook the underdogs. Worse: you can lose good money at the bookmakers if you only bet on the teams favored with the Vegas odds.
The biggest underdogs of the Qatar World Cup vary a bit depending on the bookmakers. Bwin and Sportingbet, however, have an identical view on the teams with the lowest chances of winning the FIFA World Cup.
Qatar and Iran are the first in the Top 10 of the worst teams in the tournament. Both sites estimate that the chances of these teams to take the World Cup title are a derisory 0.1%.
The bookmakers complete the underdogs with the following countries: Costa Rica, Tunisia, Australia, Canada, South Korea, Cameroon, Ghana and Japan – yes the same team that just beat Germany, one of the favorites, by a landslide. Both follow the same order, as they follow the same odds assigned.
Assuming that the bettor places at least $100 on the desired selection, the potential return offered by bookmakers would be $25,000 for Japan, Ghana, Cameroon, South Korea and Canada.
For Australia and Tunisia, the mark is $40,000, while those betting on Costa Rica should receive approximately $60,000. The potential return for Qatar and Iran is in the neighborhood of R$100,000.
The Japanese victory paid odds of up to 7.50 for those who bet on the improbable victory, according to data from three online sportsbooks compiled by InfoMoney (Bet365, Sportingbet and Betfair). The Germans were considered heavy favorites, as a win would pay odds of less than 1.50.
This means that, who bet $100 on Japan at Bet365, won $750 (the $100 that put more 6.5 times the amount bet). A victory for Germany, on the other hand, would pay a maximum of $44 for every $100 wagered, because of its favoritism.
Argentina’s defeat on Tuesday was even more improbable, and those who bet on Saudi Arabia’s victory won up to 20 times the amount bet. On the other hand, a victory for the South Americans would pay odds of no more than 1.16 (i.e., a person would earn a maximum of $16 if he bets $100 on Messi’s team).
Germany was favored not only against Japan but also to be the World Cup champion. The Germans have a 7.23% chance of taking home the title, behind Brazil (19.28%), Argentina (13.34%), France (10.84%) and Spain and England (tied for 4th place with 9.64%).
The bottom two are Costa Rica and Saudi Arabia, each with 0.12% probability (their odds are at an incredible 751). Japan has only a 0.29% chance of winning and odds of 301 (i.e. anyone betting on the Japanese winning the World Cup will win 300 times their bets if it happens).
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