The 2024 Domestic Box Office Expected To Lose $1 Billion

Photo Credit: Mark Zhu – stock.adobe.com

They say in the biz that “the show must go on,” but in 2024, the domestic box office may need more shows as Hollywood is expected to come in more than $1 billion short. Not good.

According to Gower Street, a top box office analytics firm based in London, the U.S. box office will struggle immensely due to the labor strikes and subsequent production freezes. Despite a multitiude of films being postponed until 2024, there will only be 107 movies slated for wide release. In 2023, there were 124. That is an 11% dip in production, which is also leaving six weekends in the New Year devoid of any new movies.

• • January 26

• • March 15

• • May 31

• • October 11

• • December 6

• • December 27

Spring Break, Memorial Day, the Halloween rush, and even the holidays look to get pummeled with no box office bonanza in sight. In 2023, only the New Year’s Eve weekend went without a new film.

It’s not like $8 billion is a bad haul for the domestic box office, but when you should have made $9 billion, this has plenty of production studios sweating in their popcorn-printed underwear.

“We Should Be Nervous” About the 2024 Domestic Box Office

The WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes delivered a mighty hook shot to big Hollywood executives. Yet, so did the “tentpole releases” of usual successful genres that flopped harder than grandma in a bikini.

Both Marvel and DC had some real bummers in the box office. So did the high expectations of Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, Wish, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Even Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Part One plummeted to Earth as the unsuspecting bomb that it became.

Had it not been for “Barbenheimer,” the entire year could have been a total loss.

Given that we lost 50% of production time in 2023, the anticipated 5% year-on-year decrease in 2023 is not indicative of a declining interest in cinema, but simply a direct consequence of limited product availability,” said Gower Street CEO Dimitrios Mitsinikos. “In fact, as July 2023 marked a record-breaking month at the global box office, we know that there is a robust audience demand for compelling theatrical releases.

The report also shares 2023 was looking good, up 21% from 2022. And then the strike happened. Despite the work shortages and post-pandemic issues, it seems people just don’t enjoy going to the movies as much as they used to do so. Or, can’t afford it like they used to do.

Attendance is down almost 1/3 from pre-pandemic levels. “In 2023, 64% prefer watching films at home vs. 36% in cinemas, compared to 2018 when it was 43% at home vs. 57% in cinemas.”

Speaking to Deadline under anonymity, some nameless executive said:

There’s no way that a labor stoppage as prolonged as chaotic as this wasn’t going to have consequences. Fire comes through and burns a forest and a town, and then the fire is over. But the consequences of the fire aren’t over. There’s mudslides, and there’s damaged infrastructure.

They added, “The fire is over. Now we’ve gotta rebuild the town.” Well, good luck with that. Given the price of goods with inflation, that’ll cost even more. And by the looks of things, the common fan isn’t too keen on paying for it this time.