Marvel Studios is gearing up to launch the 2025 summer movie season with Thunderbolts*, set for release on May 2, 2025. Early tracking, reported by The Hollywood Reporter, pegs its domestic opening weekend at $63 million to $77 million, with a target of $70 million. While that’s a solid debut for most films, it’s a modest start compared to the MCU’s summer blockbusters like The Avengers and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. Here’s why Thunderbolts*—a rag-tag anti-hero team-up—might still surprise, despite falling short of Marvel’s loftiest summer highs.
A Lower MCU Summer Benchmark
The MCU has owned the first weekend of May for years, delivering juggernauts like Iron Man ($98 million in 2008), The Avengers ($207 million in 2012), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($146 million in 2017), and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($187 million in 2022). At $70 million, Thunderbolts* would land below even pandemic-era releases like Black Widow ($80 million) and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million), per The Hollywood Reporter. It’s also less than this year’s Captain America: Brave New World, which opened to $88 million in February 2025.
Yet, it’s not all gloom. The $63 million to $77 million range outpaces Marvel’s lowest openers—The Marvels ($46 million), The Incredible Hulk ($55 million), Ant-Man ($57 million), Captain America: The First Avenger ($65 million), and Thor ($65 million)—showing the MCU brand still carries weight, even for a lesser-known crew.
Why the Modest Start?
Thunderbolts* isn’t your typical MCU summer fare. Unlike the star-powered Avengers or the breakout Guardians, it features a team of anti-heroes—think Yelena Belova (Florence Pugh), Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan), and John Walker (Wyatt Russell)—pulled from Disney+ shows, Black Widow, and Ant-Man and the Wasp. This isn’t a household-name roster, and that’s reflected in the projections. Earlier tracking in March 2025 estimated $60 million to $80 million, aligning with these latest figures, suggesting steady but tempered buzz.
Compare that to A Minecraft Movie, which defied its $80 million forecast to open at $163 million in April 2025. Thunderbolts* could follow suit if it overperforms, but its B-list lineup and post-Endgame MCU fatigue might cap its ceiling—unless word-of-mouth ignites.
Buzz and Potential Upside
Despite the numbers, Thunderbolts* has tailwinds. Test screenings have reportedly scored high, hinting at a sleeper hit. Trailers tout its A24-esque vibe—thanks to talent like Pugh and director Jake Schreier—aiming to lure viewers beyond the superhero crowd. Plus, with six cast members confirmed for 2026’s Avengers: Doomsday, Marvel’s betting on a hype boost. As MovieWeb’s Richard Fink notes, this isn’t a Suicide Squad-style death fest—survival’s no spoiler here, which could keep audiences invested.
A $70 million debut would rank it third in 2025, behind A Minecraft Movie and Captain America: Brave New World. With no major competition in its second weekend, strong buzz could give it legs through May, much like Guardians of the Galaxy grew from quirky underdog to franchise titan.
What’s at Stake for Marvel?
At a reported $180 million budget, Thunderbolts* needs roughly $450 million to $500 million worldwide to break even, factoring in marketing and theater cuts. A $70 million U.S. opening, paired with a decent international haul (say, $100 million), gets it to $170 million out the gate—not a home run, but a foundation. Recent MCU ensemble films like Eternals ($71 million opening, $164 million domestic) and The Marvels ($46 million opening, $84 million domestic) faltered, but Thunderbolts*’s lower stakes and fresh tone might dodge that fate.
Marvel’s summer kickoffs have set a high bar—19 films have topped $100 million domestically on opening weekend. Thunderbolts* won’t join them, but a solid $70 million-plus start in a post-Endgame landscape still screams demand. As the final marketing ramps up, all eyes are on whether this anti-hero squad can build a creeper vine of success.
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