It is finally here! The Oscars are the biggest event of the year for cinephiles, and the longest award season on record finally comes to a close tonight, April 25th at 8pm ET/5pm PT. While we can all agree that art is subjective and rarely does the Oscars truly award the best in cinema, it is a blast to follow the trends and get emotionally invested in who prevails. This is the type of event that makes me understand the allure of sports.
While the year has been more than a bit bumpy when it comes to the theatrical experience, that does not mean there has not been a ton of great movies that have been released either through streaming or modified theatrical experiences. My wife and colleague, Jessica Gonzales, and I have been hard at work catching up on every single nominee from this year, and after completing this task we can safely say there is ample opportunity for this to be one of the strongest batch of winners we have seen in some time.
Just this week, we released an episode of our Homedance Film Festival podcast in which we discuss our predicted winners of the 2021 Academy Awards. If you want a conversation that is slightly more in depth, we would appreciate you giving it a shot. Armed with the knowledge gained from viewing all of these films and following the awards season, we are going to do our best to guide you through who we think has the best shot of being victorious at the Academy Awards this year.
BEST PICTURE
“Mank“
“The Trial of the Chicago 7″
Oscar Analysis: Nomadland has won virtually everywhere it needed to in order to call this one all but a lock. The Trial of the Chicago 7 may try to swoop in at the last moment and snag it, but that is a huge longshot. Almost any of these films would make for a great Best Picture winner.
Dillon’s Prediction: Nomadland
Jessica’s Prediction: Nomadland
Should Win: Promising Young Woman & Sound of Metal in an unprecedented tie
Spoiler: The Trial of the Chicago 7
DIRECTOR
Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
Oscar Analysis: Nomadland has the category sewn up even more so than Best Picture. Chloe Zhao is going to win, and it is going to be a much-deserved, beautiful moment.
Dillon’s Prediction: Chloe Zhao
Jessica’s Prediction: Chloe Zhao
Should Win: Chloe Zhao
Spoiler: Emerald Fennell
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Steven Yeun, “Minari”
Oscar Analysis: Anthony Hopkins has cast some doubt as to whether Chadwick Boseman is guaranteed to win his Oscar as much as people believe, but the love for Boseman both as a person and for his performance will allow for another touching moment when his wife delivers an acceptance speech on his behalf.
Dillon’s Prediction: Chadwick Boseman
Jessica’s Prediction: Chadwick Boseman
Should Win: Riz Ahmed
Spoiler: Anthony Hopkins
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
Oscar Analysis: This is the most up in the air category of the entire evening. Andra Day won Golden Globes, Carey Mulligan won Critic’s Choice, Viola Davis won SAG and Frances McDormand won BAFTA. What are you to do? In the end, you have to go with your gut instinct. Vanessa Kirby delivered a great performance, but her movie is tainted by outside factors, unfortunately. Andra Day is excellent as Billie Holiday, but her movie has been received poorly. Frances McDormand has won too recently for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The race is down to Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis, who both deliver the strongest performances of their career.
Dillon’s Prediction: Carey Mulligan
Jessica’s Prediction: Viola Davis
Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Spoiler: Viola Davis
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Youn Yuh-jung, “Minari”
Oscar Analysis: This is yet another case of a strong lineup of contenders, but few people have stolen the hearts of viewers as much this season as Youn Yuh-jung. The desire to award Minari with at least one award will be enough to secure her win.
Dillon’s Prediction: Youn Yuh-jung
Jessica’s Prediction: Youn Yuh-jung
Should Win: Youn Yuh-jung
Spoiler: Maria Bakalova
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Lakeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Oscar Analysis: This is Daniel Kaluuya’s award to lose. Out of the four acting categories, this one is the one that people should be most confident in predicting. While I genuinely want to list the transcendent Paul Raci as the “Should Win” of the group, it is hard to deny the power of Daniel Kaluuya here.
Dillon’s Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya
Jessica’s Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Spoiler: Paul Raci
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
“Another Round” – Denmark
“Better Days” – Hong Kong
“Collective” – Romania
“The Man Who Sold His Skin” – Tunisia
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” – Bosnia and Herzegovina
Oscar Analysis: The love for Quo Vadis, Aida? is real, but the broad support goes to Another Round, especially with its Best Director nomination.
Dillon’s Prediction: Another Round
Jessica’s Prediction: Another Round
Should Win: Another Round
Spoiler: Quo Vadis, Aida?
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
“Colette”
“A Concerto Is a Conversation”
“Do Not Split”
“Hunger Ward”
“A Love Song For Latasha”
Oscar Analysis: For an in-depth look at the Oscar-nominated short films, take a look at our analysis here. Smart money would say to go with the shortest and most pleasant of these shorts, A Concerto Is A Conversation, but I am going to bank on the Academy being traditional and honoring a film about the Holocaust. Colette is my pick to win this category, but a surprise from Do Not Split would make me incredibly happy.
Dillon’s Prediction: Colette
Jessica’s Prediction: A Concerto Is A Conversation
Should Win: Do Not Split
Spoiler: A Concerto Is A Conversation
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Collective”
“Crip Camp”
“The Mole Agent”
“My Octopus Teacher”
“Time”
Oscar Analysis: This could very well be the place where the surprise cultural phenomenon My Octopus Teacher fails to secure the win, but I am not bold enough to predict that upset.
Dillon’s Prediction: My Octopus Teacher
Jessica’s Prediction: Time
Should Win: The Mole Agent
Spoiler: Crip Camp
ORIGINAL SONG
“Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”
“lo Sì (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)”
“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami…”
Oscar Analysis: The narrative for Diane Warren to win her first Oscar for The Life Ahead after twelve nominations is a strong one, but having Leslie Odom Jr. singing a song in One Night In Miami…, a movie that was very nearly a Best Picture nominee, is almost too good to pass up. If the voters are judging this based on how the songs are used in the film, Eurovision would be the runaway winner. I’m predicting an upset for Leslie Odom Jr. so that Diane Warren can finally prevail for her wonderful song.
Dillon’s Prediction: “lo Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead
Jessica’s Prediction: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…
Should Win: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Spoiler: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Onward”
“Over the Moon”
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”
“Soul”
“Wolfwalkers”
Oscar Analysis: Pixar has been the default choice for Academy members for years, but passion for Wolfwalkers has been running high since it was released. If Soul was not a great movie, there might be a world where it would lose, but it’s not happening this year.
Dillon’s Prediction: Soul
Jessica’s Prediction: Soul
Should Win: Wolfwalkers
Spoiler: Wolfwalkers
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Borat Subsequent MovieFilm”
“The Father”
“Nomadland”
“One Night in Miami”
“The White Tiger”
Oscar Analysis: The love for Nomadland has been overwhelming and has extended to the screenplay at many award shows, but its screenplay is somewhat slight compared to the tightly constructed narrative of The Father. Oscar voters loved The Father enough to nominate in multiple categories including Best Picture, so this might be the lone place where they choose to give it some much-deserved recognition.
Dillon’s Prediction: The Father
Jessica’s Prediction: Nomadland
Should Win: The Father
Spoiler: Nomadland
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Minari”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Oscar Analysis: The directing nomination for Emerald Fennell shows exactly how beloved Promising Young Woman is by the Academy, which fellow nominee Aaron Sorkin could not pull off for The Trial of the Chicago 7. While Sorkin is beloved for his writing, he has won previously for The Social Network and Promising Young Woman is such an undeniable debut that it will at least win this.
Dillon’s Prediction: Promising Young Woman
Jessica’s Prediction: Promising Young Woman
Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Spoiler: The Trial of the Chicago 7
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Father”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Tenet”
Oscar Analysis: It may have led the pack with 10 nominations, but Mank has been conspicuously absent up until this point. The film has its detractors, but nearly everyone can agree that the lavish old Hollywood setting was brought to life beautifully and deserves some recognition. The nomination for The Father is inspired given how integral the production design is to the narrative as a whole, but the work will likely be too subtle to pick up the win.
Dillon’s Prediction: Mank
Jessica’s Prediction: Mank
Should Win: The Father
Spoiler: News of the World
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Sean Bobbitt, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Erik Messerschmidt, “Mank”
Dariusz Wolski, “News of the World”
Joshua James Richards, “Nomadland”
Phedon Papamichael, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Oscar Analysis: Nomadland rarely missed in this category until Mank pulled an upset at the ACE Awards last week. This is not unexpected, though, as cinematographers love black-and-white films and choose them more often than not when given the option. The Academy is a much larger beast, so Nomadland should easily continue its dominance here.
Dillon’s Prediction: Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
Jessica’s Prediction: Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
Should Win: Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
Spoiler: Erik Messerschmidt, Mank
COSTUME DESIGN
“Emma”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“Mulan”
“Pinocchio”
Oscar Analysis: The precursor awards seem to indicate that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the safe bet here, but this is where I go out on a limb and say that the Academy goes for the flashy costumes of Emma. This is the type of film that used to be a shoe-in once upon a time, but enough of the Academy may have not actually seen it to win. If you are betting money, go with Ma Rainey.
Dillon’s Prediction: Emma.
Jessica’s Prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Win: Emma.
Spoiler: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND
“Greyhound”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Soul”
“Sound of Metal”
Oscar Analysis: I mean, “sound” is in the title! Sound of Metal not only has this very obvious point in its favor, but the entire narrative hinges on sound and its absence in its different forms. It will be a very deserving winner. The two Tom Hanks films will probably cancel each other out, so the runner-up feels like it would be Soul, which also has a narrative built around sound.
Dillon’s Prediction: Sound of Metal
Jessica’s Prediction: Sound of Metal
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Spoiler: Soul
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“Burrow”
“Genius Loci”
“If Anything Happens I Love You”
“Opera”
“Yes-People”
Oscar Analysis: For an in-depth look at the Oscar-nominated short films, take a look at our analysis here. The combination of timely topic and emotional devastation should help If Anything Happens I Love You clinch the win, but Burrow could sneak in and take it if voters pick Pixar out of habit.
Dillon’s Prediction: If Anything Happens I Love You
Jessica’s Prediction: If Anything Happens I Love You
Should Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Spoiler: Burrow
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
“Feeling Through”
“The Letter Room”
“The Present”
“Two Distant Strangers”
“White Eye”
Oscar Analysis: For an in-depth look at the Oscar-nominated short films, take a look at our analysis here. The last year has been rough, so I am going to bank on the Academy wanting to reward something that makes them feel good such as Feeling Through. Although, it would not surprise me if the name recognition of Oscar Isaac was enough for The Letter Room to pick up a win.
Dillon’s Prediction: Feeling Through
Jessica’s Prediction: Feeling Through
Should Win: Feeling Through
Spoiler: The Letter Room
ORIGINAL SCORE
“Da 5 Bloods”
“Mank”
“Minari”
“News of the World”
“Soul”
Oscar Analysis: The trio of Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste have won all season for Soul, and that is not going to stop on Oscar night. There is a lot of love for the score from Minari, but the chance for an upset is almost nonexistent.
Dillon’s Prediction: Soul
Jessica’s Prediction: Soul
Should Win: Minari
Spoiler: Minari
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Love and Monsters”
“The Midnight Sky”
“Mulan”
“The One and Only Ivan”
“Tenet”
Oscar Analysis: Christopher Nolan was supposed to “save” cinema with his big-budget sci-fi epic Tenet, a burden that has only tainted the reputation of a very solid film. This should be the place where the film gets some recognition for its inventive visual effects. Do not be surprised if the Academy chooses to go with the flashy space movie, The Midnight Sky. If they wanted to go for something fun, Love and Monsters would be an inspired choice, but it is likely not “important” enough in the eyes of many voting members.
Dillon’s Prediction: Tenet
Jessica’s Prediction: Tenet
Should Win: Tenet
Spoiler: The Midnight Sky
FILM EDITING
“The Father”
“Nomadland”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Oscar Analysis: This category will be another nail-biter as Sound of Metal faces off against The Trial of the Chicago 7. Both have won their fair share of precursors – and even tied at one- so you will once again have to go with your gut. Chicago 7 has the flashy editing that juggles multiple timelines, while Sound of Metal features more subtle editing that really makes the movie something special. If Promising Young Woman or The Father were to sneak in here for the win, both would be much deserved.
Dillon’s Prediction: Sound of Metal
Jessica’s Prediction: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Spoiler: The Trial of the Chicago 7
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Emma”
“Hillbilly Elegy”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“Pinocchio”
Oscar Analysis: If voters actually watch Pinocchio, it is hard to imagine them rejecting this wondrous feat of makeup and hairstyling. Therein lies the rub – how many people are actually going to watch a 2+ hour Italian version of Pinocchio? Everyone is already watching Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom for the acting nominations, and that team has been picking up many precursor awards. Despite this, I am going out on a limb and saying the Academy will do the right thing and recognize Pinocchio.
Dillon’s Prediction: Pinocchio
Jessica’s Prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Win: Pinocchio
Spoiler: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
No matter who wins or loses when all is said and done, we are fortunate to have so many great movies to appreciate for years to come. Let us know what you are rooting for over on Twitter and check in with our Homedance Film Festival podcast to hear Jessica and me discuss these films a bit more in depth.
Dillon is most comfortable sitting around in a theatre all day watching both big budget and independent movies.
