With the final installment of the Skywalker saga drawing ever nearer, it seems like everyone has a prediction on how The Rise of Skywalker will fare at the Box Office. Well, never let it be said that we at Geek Vibes Nation shy away from putting our two cents in. Or perhaps even a Billion plus. With that in mind, some of the brain trust here will make their predictions. How will this much-anticipated film fare? Does it have a chance to surpass the Star Wars watermark of The Force Awakens? Let’s see what we think.
When it comes to Star Wars, there is always a built-in audience. Those are the diehard fans who will support a Star Wars project no matter what. While this is a good starting point, it will need a lot more if it hopes to challenge The Force Awakens box office power. The positive side is that the reactions to the trailers have been relatively positive and pre-ticket sales have been strong. In addition, the new Disney+ show The Mandalorian has amped up people’s Star Wars enthusiasm. Plus, J.J. Abrams involvement might also give the film a boost. However, The Last Jedi left a bad taste in many people’s mouths. Because of this, Rise of the Skywalker will need a STRONG opening and better yet, a huge word of mouth push.
Box Office Possibilities
Our friends at MovieWeb have predicted an opening box office take of around the $185 – $225 million mark on the opening weekend. That would place it between The Last Jedi and The Force Awakens which set the Star Wars standard at $240 million for its opening weekend. I believe that is a good sweet spot for the opening weekend. But what happens after that?
The competition at the box office might have some say in that. The Jumanji sequel, Jumanji: The Next Level comes out the week prior and Cats comes out on the same day as Rise. They will have their audiences but this IS Star Wars after all. If critics and fans push the virtues of the film, it can overcome the Last Jedi’s dark cloud and perhaps gain some traction in the following weeks. If the reaction is more negative or perhaps mixed, it could dampen repeat business which is the life’s blood of box office success.
I’m going for a more positive outlook. While I do not believe it will reach the historic totals of Avengers End Game, I do believe that Rise will overcome the malaise that affected the previous Star Wars film. It will end up taking in between $500 – 700 million domestically when all is said and done. While it may not catch The Force Awakens’ total box office haul, it will do over a billion overall. Let’s put it at $ 1.75 billion. It will become a fitting conclusion to the Skywalker Saga in story and at the Box Office. Of course, I might be looking at this through Force colored glasses. If for some reason it fails? I still have The Mandalorian.
I think even with the sour taste that The Last Jedi left in the mouth of many, there are still die-hard Star Wars fans that will turn out in droves to see this movie. Disney is touting this as the END of the Skywalker Saga and Disney CEO Bob Iger has said that Star Wars on the big screen will take a hiatus, though plans for a 2022 movie release do not really scream hiatus. I think this movie officially being the final time we will see Carrie Fisher on screen as Leia will also prompt fans to want to turn out.
Can this movie top Endgame? That is going to be very tough and though it may fall short of what The Force Awakens earned its first weekend, Skywalker is expected to surpass $235 million over its opening weekend. I think with a good word of mouth, ROS can surpass The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi to become the top-grossing Star Wars movie of all time but I think Endgame will stay atop the Box Office world for quite some time. I predict a final box office tally of $2.3 billion.
After having recently watched The Last Jedi and being incredibly disappointed by it, I want to say that my predictions for The Rise of Skywalker are pretty low. Who am I kidding, though? This is Star Wars. Possibly the biggest franchise of all time. Far bigger than anything Marvel, DC, or Star Trek could ever hope to achieve. It doesn’t matter that The Last Jedi divided fans; people will go see this monumental film.
Not only is it a Star Wars movie, but it is the end of an era. The wrapping up of a trilogy and presumably, the Skywalker storyline. Disney’s CEO Bob Iger has expressed that this will be it for Star Wars in the movies for a while, even though we almost got D&D from Game of Thrones for their own Star Wars trilogy. Disney+ is crushing it with The Mandalorian and a Cassian Andor series is expected to hit the streaming service as well. The movies may take a break, but just like with Marvel; nothing is stopping this train. The next time Star Wars hits the big screen, it might be Kevin Feige behind it.
Let’s also take into account that J.J. Abrams is back. Rian Johnson’s vision for The Last Jedi was poorly received. Poorly executed. J.J. though gave us The Force Awakens. A movie that made 2.066 billion dollars in the box office. With J.J. back to finish this story and the anticipation of Rey possibly going to the dark side, it’s going to be a huge event. Not only do we get to see the conclusion to Kylo Ren and Rey’s stories, but this is the last time Carrie Fisher is on screen as General Leia. There is so much nostalgia thrown into this movie, it’s hard to say that it won’t crush the box office. Can it beat Avengers: Endgame? I’m not sure. I do think, it could maybe beat The Force Awakens. No amount of bitterness over The Last Jedi could prevent The Rise of Skywalker from drawing people in.
My final prediction? $2.1 billion.
I would not say that everyone hated The Last Jedi; it was just a loud minority. If Last Jedi were hated by so much, it would not have the repeat value to make one $1billion. Now with Rise of Skywalker, we will have all of the Star Wars fans, Yes, even the fans that hated Last Jedi and Force Awakens they will all be their day one. I will even predict that Rise of Skywalker will make over $300 million. Now the big question is, will it beat out Avengers Endgame’s $357 million? I will way that it might. Opening Weekend I will say $340 million – $360 million just because it is the last film in the Skywalker Series!
Final box office I will say around $2 billion – $2.5 billion beating out Titanic, Force Awakens, and Infinity War. Everyone has loved the trailers. This is my final decision. “I have spoken!”
So there you have it. While the numbers may vary with a low of $1.75 billion to a high of $2.5 billion, one thing seems to be the consensus. Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker will be a success and a fitting end to the iconic Story. How do you think the film will fare? Will it come close to the Box Office King in End Game? Will it even surpass The Force Awakens? Share what the force tells you with us at GeekVibesNation.
I am a 50 something child of the 70’s who admits to being a Star Trek/Star Wars/Comic Book junkie who once dove head first over a cliff (Ok, it was a small hill) to try to rescue his Fantastic Four comic from a watery grave. I am married to a lovely woman who is as crazy as I am and the proud parent of a 15 year old boy with autism. My wife and son are my real heroes.